Climate Change Program
The Climate Change Program was established in 2003. It attempts to develop process models of lodgepole pine growth that can be used to produce climate-sensitive growth and yield models.
Most traditional growth and yield models assume that past growth conditions—soils, climate, disturbance regimes—will not change appreciably in the foreseeable future. In other words, they assume that past growth is a reliable indicator of future productivity. This seems unlikely, however. Within the Foothills Model Forest, average forest productivity has evidently increased in timber stands of both fire and harvest origins—and regional climate trends suggest climate warming could be partly responsible. As a result, traditional models might provide unreliable results when forecasting future yields.
In the Climate Change Program, researchers are developing and testing a process-based growth and yield model called “StandLEAP.” Unlike traditional models, StandLEAP responds to changes in climate. Their results will be compared to observations of past lodgepole pine growth in the Foothills Model Forest land base. They will provide “climate correction” factors to existing growth-and yield tables, providing better estimates of future annual allowable cuts (AAC).